I took a 4-week break from this newsletter but have been busy meeting gurus, reading unpublished books, surfing new sites and finding many nuggets of e-learning gold to share with you in the weeks ahead.

I figure no self-respecting newsletter is complete without a January issue talking about the year ahead. So here are some trends for 2003...

1) 800 lb Gorillas Get Serious; Small Vendors in (worse) Pain
Microsoft gets into the game with many acquisitions; MSFT bought Placewhere last night, 80/20 odds they will buy Macromedia to get Flash... Oracle has made a huge splash and has lots of buzz with their decent iLearning LMS which is priced to gain ground... Siebel's ERM initiative takes hold and CRM linked with e-Learning for sales is big winner in long term -- all this makes life touger for Saba, Click2Learn, Docent, WebEx, Centra, etc.

2) Surprise! Open Source Movement Takes Off for e-Learning
Mid-market companies need solutions they can afford, academic institutions are balking at higher prices from WebCT and Blackboard, and less developed countries now have bandwidth and systems engineers but no software. Look for more open source LMS's as well as new content by years end. Like LINUX movement, will be viable business for some, great solution for many, not a threat to the big commercial providers.

3) Reusability is Out; 5-minute Learning Objects are In
In this economy business units buy e-learning, not HR or Training departments. BU heads want specific solutions they are willing to pay for, and don't care if anyone can reuse or not. Learners hate big courses and page turners; Learners love quick bites targeted to job-relevant problems.

4) Conversation Moves from "Blending" to "Blurring"
It's not new but it will take hold. What is e-Learning? It behooves learners, e-learning professionals and vendors to use as broad of definition as possible. It includes training, information, job aids, communication, collaboration, knowledge management, etc. Someday we'll have a new (or old) term for all this stuff. Tom Kelly, Brandon Hall, and Marc Rosenberg are saying smart things...

5) Add "Analytics" to Your Vocabulary
e-Learning needs to matter. ROI is over-rated but Value on Investment or Total Value Added are more important than ever before. Analytics will study e-learning impact on many performance variables -- individual and organizational performance. Docent is doing smart product development in this area... Click2Learn's Kevin Oakes has the right messaging... ERP's and others will quickly catch up.

E-Learning Salary Survey

The eLearning Guild is conducting the first global salary survey of e-learning professionals. Anyone who is involved in designing, developing, managing, selling, obtaining, etc. e-Learning in/for their organization is encouraged to participate in this survey. You do not have to be a member of The eLearning Guild to contribute. Click link below to complete:

http://www.elearningguild.com/surveys/?sid=12

Would any of your colleagues get value from these predictions or salary survey? If so, please forward this e-mail to them and help build the Guru community.

Here's to living and learning in 2003,

-- Kevin

Kevin Kruse is the e-learning columnist for CLO, Chief Learning Officer magazine, author of Technology-based Training (Jossey-Bass), and Principal with Kenexa. He can be reached at kkruse@e-learningguru.com.