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http://www.e-learningguru.com/articles/ezine/guru3_1.htm

The Great Big Predictions Issue!

Happy New Year!

Scroll on down and get a quick peek into the crystal balls of various pundits, and remember, you see the future as clearly as we do...

My e-Learning Predictions for 2004
Kevin Kruse, Chief Learning Officer Magazine

Like all columnists and would-be pundits I signed a sacred oath to do predictions every January. Here are my six themes:

1) Industry consolidation continues
2) Off-shore development becomes common
3) Quality of instructional design gets worse (but cheaper)
4) Quality of Instructional design gets better (but more expensive)
5) Mobile-learning accelerates
6) Workflow-based learning becomes the focus

To read my full article on these six trends click:
http://www.e-learningguru.com/articles/art_misc_4.htm

Top Ten Trends for 2004: It's All About Productivity Now
Sam Adkins, Workflow Learning Institute

Jay Cross and Sam Adkins founded the Workflow Institute to focus on real-time, enterprise-wide learning issues. You can get a good idea of their position and focus from their hot-off-the-press Top Ten Trends list:

1) The second wave of XML and Web Services begins.
2) Enterprise Application Integration begins.
3) Productivity gains from new mobile technology explodes.
4) Real-time Managed Collaboration and Workflow Automation start to converge.
5) The broad adoption phase of Workflow Learning begins.
6) Simulation reaches adolescence and identity crisis phase.
7) Social network analysis technology is comandeered for productivity.
8) Battle for single business process interface intensifies.
9) Agent-based technologies dominate the entire spectrum of technology innovation.
10) The information Tsunami becomes the top business challenge driving technology innovation.

Read Sam Adkins' fulll article at: http://www.workflowlearning.com/trends.htm

2004: The Turning Point
Stephen Downes

Stephen offers seven predictions:

1) A population in search of community
2) Blogging without writing
3) Personalization finally works
4) Learning objects at last
5) New hype: Simulations
6) Attacking open content
7) IP communications, finally

Read Stephen's full article at: http://www.downes.ca/cgi-bin/website/view.cgi?dbs=Article&key=1072826566

E-Learning Predictions
Reed Gaither, Darwin Magazine

Reed Gaither, VP of Marketing at DigitalThink, offers:

1) Customer e-learning courseware gains enterprise importance.
2) Outsourced e-learning will be the model for corporate buyers.
3) Buyers will spend more; strong vendors will thrive.
4) Simulations premier choice for compelling training.
5) On-demand e-learning technology services go mainstream.

Read Gaither's full article at: http://www.darwinmag.com/read/120103/elearn.html

From DigiTruth to Identity Terrorism
Faith Popcorn, BrainReserve

1) Big Mother -- Mom Unplugged
2) Persona Propaganda
3) Identity Terrorism
4) Profiling Paranoia
5) Porn as the Norm
6) The Idoling of America
7) Mystic Messages

Click here to read Faith Popcorn's press release.

2004's Top Technology Trends
John Fortt, Forbes.com

1) Bluetooth
2) Megapixel Phones
3) iPod's Competition
4) Video iPod's
5) Faster Cell Networks
6) Surveillance
7) Video Blogs
8) Big, Flat Cheaper TVs
9) DVR + DVD-R = TNT

Click here to read full Forbes article.

CNN/Money Predictions for 2004
Eric Hellweg, CNN/Money

1) Digital Music Shakeout
2) Offshore Outsourcing Becomes Election Issue
3) NASDAQ 2,500
4) VOIP Takes Off

Click here to read full CNN/Money article.

Now it's your turn...
Jay Cross is asking for your opinion of the future. Will you help him evaluate the Edinburgh Scenarios?

New e-Learning Digest in Arabic & English
The e-TQM College launches the first issue of its e-learning digest on January 10th in both Arabic and English, as part of its effort to spread e-learning through the Arab world. If you want to receive this free quarterly publication click: http://www.etqm.net/emails_maint2.asp

Will you forward this e-mail to everyone you know? Hey, who wouldn't like to scan, discuss, agree, and disagree with all these predictions? If they don't thank you I'll give you your money back!

Here's to living and learning in the future,
-- Kevin

Kevin Kruse is the e-learning columnist for CLO, Chief Learning Officer magazine, author of Technology-based Training (Jossey-Bass), and President of AXIOM Professional Health Learning. He can be reached at kkruse@e-learningguru.com.